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Vistra (VST) missed Q3 revenue expectations by 19.3% but initiated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B to $7.6B, representing 22% to 29% growth.
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Vistra generated $923M in free cash flow during Q3 and authorized an additional $1B share buyback program through 2027.
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The revenue miss was driven by lower mark-to-market gains on derivatives and a plant outage, while realized energy and capacity prices improved.
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Vistra Corp (NYSE: VST) reported Q3 2025 earnings before market open on November 6, missing revenue expectations sharply while signaling confidence through aggressive 2026 guidance and a $1 billion share buyback authorization. The stock fell roughly 4% in pre-market trading, though the company’s forward outlook and operational execution suggest the miss may be more tactical than strategic.
Vistra’s Q3 revenue of $4.97 billion fell 19.3% short of the $6.16 billion consensus estimate. That’s a significant gap. The miss was driven partly by lower unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivatives and the impact of a Martin Lake Unit 1 outage. Yet beneath the headline disappointment, the company demonstrated solid operational footing. Free cash flow came in at $923 million, and operating cash flow reached $1.35 billion. These metrics reflect the core business running well despite the revenue headwind.
Net income fell to $652 million from $1.84 billion a year earlier, a 64.6% decline. That drop was largely accounting-driven. Mark-to-market swings on derivative positions created volatility that masked the underlying strength in realized energy and capacity prices, which actually improved during the quarter.
What matters more right now is what Vistra sees ahead. The company narrowed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion for ongoing operations. More important, it initiated 2026 guidance at $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion, representing 22% to 29% growth from the midpoint of 2025 guidance. That’s a meaningful acceleration, and management wouldn’t project it if they weren’t confident in the catalysts driving it.
Those catalysts are real. The company completed its acquisition of seven natural gas plants. It’s building two new natural gas units in West Texas. And it secured a 20-year power purchase agreement for Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant. These are multi-year revenue drivers that will compound over time.
Vistra authorized an additional $1 billion in share repurchases, expected to complete by 2027. That’s not the move of a management team worried about near-term headwinds. Combined with the forward guidance, the buyback signals that leadership views the current valuation as attractive relative to long-term cash generation potential.
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Q3 Revenue: $4.97B (vs. $6.16B expected); missed by 19.3%
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Net Income: $652M (down 64.6% YoY); mark-to-market losses drove the decline
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Free Cash Flow: $923M; demonstrates operational cash generation remains intact
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Operating Cash Flow: $1.35B; strong conversion of earnings to cash
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2025 Adjusted EBITDA (Narrowed): $5.7B to $5.9B
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2026 Adjusted EBITDA (Initiated): $6.8B to $7.6B; represents 22-29% growth
The cash flow metrics are what I’d focus on here. They show the business is working. The revenue miss and net income decline are partly accounting artifacts. Realized prices improved, which is what matters for actual cash in the door.
CEO Jim Burke said Vistra “wrapped up an active third quarter marked by disciplined growth and a focus on meeting customer needs across key markets, leading to several significant milestones.” The language emphasizes execution over excuses. He didn’t dwell on the revenue miss or the outage. Instead, he highlighted the strategic wins: the plant acquisitions, the nuclear PPA, the West Texas builds.
That framing tells you how management views this quarter. It’s a speed bump in a longer growth story, not a sign of fundamental weakness.
The earnings call at 10:00 AM ET on November 6 will be worth listening to, though the real story is already visible in the numbers and guidance. Pay attention to how management addresses the revenue shortfall. More important, listen for details on the timing of the new natural gas units coming online and any updates on the nuclear PPA economics. Those drive the 2026 upside.
Also listen for color on realized prices. If management signals that the higher energy and capacity prices they realized in Q3 are sustainable, that’s a tailwind for margins going forward. If they’re cautious on pricing durability, that could temper enthusiasm for the 2026 guide.
Vistra missed revenue badly, but the miss appears tactical rather than strategic. Cash generation remains strong. The 2026 guidance implies meaningful growth. And management is deploying capital confidently through buybacks. The stock’s 4% pre-market decline may be an opportunity for investors focused on longer-term cash flow and EBITDA growth, though the 19.3% revenue miss warrants caution until management clarifies the drivers of the shortfall and the durability of the pricing environment ahead.