Unusually timed futures flows ahead of President Donald Trumpʼs Iran de‑escalation post on Monday have sparked sharp questions about whether someone close to the president is trading U.S. policy for profit.
Roughly 15 minutes before Trump’s early‑morning Truth Social post flagging “very good and productive” talks with Iran, S&P 500 e‑mini futures saw a single large buy estimated at about $1.5 billion notional.
At the same time, about $580 million notional in oil futures was traded, positioning for stocks to rip and crude to collapse on any positive geopolitical surprise.
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When Trump’s post hit around 7:00 a.m. ET, U.S. equity futures spiked and Brent crude plunged, instantly turning that long‑stocks/short‑oil stance into a lucrative, well‑timed macro trade.
Market participants quoted by the Financial Times called the move “unusually timed” and “unusually large … for a day with no event risk.”
Benzinga reached out to the White House for comment, but did not immediately hear back.
The FT reported that White House spokesperson Kush Desai said, “The only focus of President Trump and Trump administration officials is doing what’s best for the American people.”
Desai added that “The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
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Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt put a blunt label on the unusual options flow, arguing that there is “ZERO doubt” in his mind that “Trump money was behind this buying.”
In a social media post, Brandt said he has traded futures for five decades and believes the president and his orbit are effectively front‑running market‑moving policy signals.
I’ve traded futures markets for five decades. There is ZERO doubt in my mind that Trump money was behind this buying.
There is NOOOOO law that prevents the Trump machine from manipulating futures markets. Inside trading is legal
Trump family fortune grew today. Trump is playing… https://t.co/1rY3a8N1ru
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) March 23, 2026
He added that “inside trading is legal” for the “Trump machine” because current rules are narrowly written around corporate material non‑public information rather than geopolitical decision‑making.
Brandt concluded that the “Trump family fortune grew today” and that the president is “playing markets like a fiddle.”
Regulators have not alleged wrongdoing, but growing political and public pressure is likely to force closer scrutiny of whether U.S. policy is being leveraged as a trading edge in the futures pits.
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Traders looking to echo the suspected “Trump trade” around Iran headlines can lean into a three‑legged macro playbook built on equities, energy and volatility.
A long risk‑on stance in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust effectively mirrors the reported $1.5 billion S&P futures buy that appeared to front‑run Trump’s Iran de‑escalation post, aiming to capture upside whenever surprise diplomacy headlines squeeze shorts and rip index futures higher.
At the same time, a barbell of short crude and long airlines using oil futures, United States Oil Fund, ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil and ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil against carriers like Delta Air Lines , American Airlines Group and United Airlines Holdings bets that any Trump premium in oil evaporates as war fears cool, while lower fuel costs and reduced headline risk re‑rate travel demand.
Finally, a volatility‑crush component — short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF and ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF or long -1x Short VIX Futures ETF — targets the recurring pattern of VIX spiking into Iran scare stories only to get rug‑pulled by sudden conciliatory posts, turning geopolitical headline risk into a systematic short‑volatility opportunity for nimble traders.
This image was generated using artificial intelligence via Nano Banana 2.
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This article 'Trump Is Playing Markets Like A Fiddle,' Expert Says: Here's How You Can Too originally appeared on Benzinga.com